The Wong Teaser Strategy in NFL Betting: A Comprehensive Guide

The Wong Teaser Strategy Can be Very Profitable in the NFL

The Wong Teaser Strategy is a renowned approach in NFL betting, developed by gambling expert Stanford Wong (the pen name of John Ferguson). Introduced in his book Sharp Sports Betting, this strategy leverages the statistical tendencies of NFL game outcomes to create profitable teaser bets by focusing on key numbers. This article provides a detailed explanation of the Wong Teaser Strategy, the key numbers to target for sides and totals, the rationale behind teasing through these numbers, and whether the strategy applies to a 3-team, 10-point teaser that crosses the key numbers of 10, 7, and 3.

What is a Teaser Bet?

A teaser bet is a type of parlay wager in NFL betting that allows bettors to adjust the point spread or total in their favor by a fixed number of points, typically 6, 6.5, or 7 points for NFL games. In exchange for this advantage, all legs of the teaser must win for the bet to pay out, and the odds are adjusted to reflect the reduced risk, typically offering lower payouts than a standard parlay. For example, a two-team, 6-point teaser at -110 odds requires each leg to win approximately 72.4% of the time to break even.

The Wong Teaser Strategy

The Wong Teaser Strategy focuses on optimizing teaser bets by selecting specific point spreads that, when adjusted by 6 points, cross through the most common margins of victory in NFL games: 3 and 7. These numbers are critical because they correspond to the most frequent scoring increments in football—field goals (3 points) and touchdowns with extra points (7 points).

Key Numbers for Sides

In NFL betting, key numbers are the most common margins of victory. Data from thousands of NFL games (e.g., 1999–2010, as cited by Wong, and updated analyses through 2023) show that approximately 15–17% of games end with a 3-point margin, and 7–10% end with a 7-point margin. Other margins, such as 6, 10, and 4, are less frequent but still notable.

For the Wong Teaser Strategy, the ideal point spreads to target are:

• Favorites of -7.5, -8, or -8.5: Teasing these spreads down by 6 points moves them to -1.5, -2, or -2.5, crossing both the 7 and 3 margins. For example, a -8 favorite teased to -2 crosses both key numbers, increasing the likelihood of covering the adjusted spread.
• Underdogs of +1.5, +2, or +2.5: Teasing these spreads up by 6 points moves them to +7.5, +8, or +8.5, again crossing the 3 and 7 margins. For instance, a +2 underdog teased to +8 covers if the game ends within a 3- or 7-point margin in favor of the favorite.

Historical data supports the profitability of these selections. For example, from 2003 to 2015, underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 covered a 6-point teaser 74.8–75.2% of the time, and favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 covered at a 75–76.8% clip. These win rates exceed the 72.4% break-even threshold for a two-team, 6-point teaser at -110 odds, making them positive expected value (+EV) bets.

Why Tease Through Key Numbers 3 and 7?

The rationale for teasing through 3 and 7 is rooted in the statistical frequency of NFL game outcomes. Since approximately 25–27% of games land on these margins, adjusting the spread to cross both numbers significantly increases the probability of covering the teased spread. For example:

• A favorite at -8, when teased to -2, covers if the team wins by 3 to 7 points, capturing the most common margins of victory.
• An underdog at +2, when teased to +8, covers if the team loses by 7 or fewer points, again encompassing the 3 and 7 margins.

Teasing spreads that do not cross both 3 and 7, such as -6 to +0 or +4 to +10, is less effective because they may only cross one key number (e.g., 3) or none, reducing the probability of covering. For instance, teasing a -6 favorite to +0 crosses zero, a “dead range” with minimal value since NFL games rarely end in ties (only 0.23% of games from 1995–2024 ended in a tie).

Key Numbers for Totals

Unlike sides, teasing NFL totals is generally discouraged in the Wong strategy because the cumulative frequency of key total margins (e.g., 37, 41, 44) is lower than that of spreads crossing 3 and 7. For example, the highest 6-point range for totals (e.g., 40–45) has a frequency of about 19%, compared to 44% for spreads crossing 3 and 7.

However, if one were to tease totals, key numbers to consider include 37, 41, 44, 47, and 51, as these are among the most common final score totals in NFL games. Teasing totals is less profitable because points are more evenly distributed across a wider range, and the value of each point is less predictable than with spreads. Additionally, Wong’s research emphasizes that teasing totals rarely provides the same +EV as teasing sides through 3 and 7.

To enhance the value of teasing sides, bettors can consider games with lower totals (e.g., 41 or less), as points are harder to come by, making the 6-point adjustment more impactful. For example, teasing an underdog from +2.5 to +8.5 in a game with a total of 38 is more valuable than in a game with a total of 50, as the lower total suggests a tighter game where margins are more likely to fall within the teased range.

Additional Considerations for Wong Teasers

1. Odds and Payouts: The standard two-team, 6-point teaser pays -110 or -120, requiring each leg to win at least 72.4% or 73.9% of the time, respectively, to break even. Some sportsbooks charge higher juice (e.g., -130), which increases the break-even threshold to 75.2%, making it critical to shop for the best odds.
2. Home vs. Road Teams: Recent data suggests that teasing road teams (+1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5) may yield a slightly higher hit rate (3–4.5% increase) compared to home teams, possibly due to diminishing home-field advantage.
3. Game Totals: Teasing in games with totals of 49 or lower can improve the hit rate by about 1%, as lower-scoring games increase the value of each point.
4. Sportsbook Rules: Some sportsbooks treat a push (tie) in a teaser as a loss, while others reduce the teaser to a lower number of legs. Always check the rules, as a push can significantly impact profitability.
5. Line Shopping: Sportsbooks adjust lines to avoid Wong-eligible spreads (e.g., moving from -7.5 to -9), so bettors must monitor lines early in the week to capture ideal spreads before they shift.

Does the Wong Strategy Apply to a 3-Team, 10-Point Teaser?

A 3-team, 10-point teaser, often called a “sweetheart teaser,” allows bettors to adjust the spread by 10 points in their favor for each leg, typically at odds of -120 to -130. The question is whether the Wong strategy—focusing on crossing key numbers 3 and 7—extends to crossing 10, 7, and 3 in such a teaser.

Analysis of a 3-Team, 10-Point Teaser

To apply the Wong methodology, the goal is to select spreads that, when adjusted by 10 points, cross the key numbers of 10, 7, and 3, which are among the most common margins of victory (10 occurs in about 5–6% of games, in addition to 15–17% for 3 and 7–10% for 7). Suitable spreads include:

• Favorites of -11.5, -12, or -12.5: Teasing these down by 10 points moves them to -1.5, -2, or -2.5, crossing 10, 7, and 3. For example, a -12 favorite teased to -2 covers if the team wins by 3, 7, or 10 points.
• Underdogs of -2.5, -2, or -1.5: Teasing these up by 10 points moves them to +7.5, +8, or +8.5, again crossing 10, 7, and 3. For instance, a -2 underdog teased to +8 covers if the team loses by 7 or fewer points or wins outright.

Profitability Considerations

While crossing 10, 7, and 3 aligns with the Wong principle of targeting key numbers, the profitability of a 3-team, 10-point teaser is less certain due to several factors:

1. Higher Break-Even Threshold: A 3-team, 10-point teaser at -120 requires each leg to win approximately 80.6% of the time to break even, significantly higher than the 72.4% for a two-team, 6-point teaser at -110. At -130 odds, this threshold rises to 82.7%. Historical data for 10-point teasers is less robust, but Wong’s research suggests that even crossing 3, 6, and 7 in a 6-point teaser yields a 76.1% win rate, which falls short of the 80.6–82.7% needed for a 10-point teaser.
2. Reduced Frequency of 10: While 10 is a key number, it is less common than 3 and 7, occurring in about 5–6% of games compared to 15–17% for 3 and 7–10% for 7. This reduces the cumulative probability of covering the teased spread.
3. Sportsbook Adjustments: Sportsbooks are aware of teaser strategies and often adjust lines to avoid offering spreads like -11.5 to -12.5 or -2.5 to -1.5, limiting opportunities. Additionally, some books grade a push as a loss in 10-point teasers, further reducing value.
4. Increased Variance: A 3-team teaser requires all three legs to win, increasing variance and risk compared to a two-team teaser. Even if each leg crosses 10, 7, and 3, the combined probability may not consistently exceed the break-even threshold due to the additional leg.

Conclusion on 3-Team, 10-Point Teasers

The Wong Teaser Strategy can theoretically apply to a 3-team, 10-point teaser if the spreads are carefully selected to cross the key numbers of 10, 7, and 3 (e.g., favorites of -11.5 to -12.5 or underdogs of -2.5 to -1.5). However, the higher break-even threshold (80.6–82.7%) and the relative infrequency of the 10-point margin make it less likely to be consistently profitable compared to the two-team, 6-point Wong teaser. Data from sources like Unabated and Action Network suggest that 10-point teasers are often less +EV than 6-point teasers, and sportsbooks’ adjustments further erode the edge.

For bettors considering a 3-team, 10-point teaser, additional factors can improve the odds:

• Focus on Low Totals: Games with totals of 41 or lower increase the value of each point, making it more likely that the teased spread covers.
• Shop for Value: Look for sportsbooks offering -120 or better odds and favorable push rules (e.g., ties reduce rather than lose).
• Limit to Specific Scenarios: Use 10-point teasers selectively, such as in low-scoring games or when multiple Wong-eligible spreads are available.

Practical Example of a Wong Teaser

Consider the following hypothetical NFL games:

• Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) vs. Baltimore Ravens
• Miami Dolphins (+1.5) vs. New England Patriots

A two-team, 6-point Wong teaser at -120 odds might combine:

• Chiefs from -8 to -2 (crossing 7 and 3)
• Steelers from +2 to +8 (crossing 3 and 7)

A 3-team, 10-point teaser at -120 odds might include:

• Chiefs from -12 to -2 (crossing 10, 7, and 3)
• Steelers from -2 to +8 (crossing 3, 7, and 10)
• Dolphins from -1.5 to +8.5 (crossing 3, 7, and 10)

The two-team teaser is more likely to be profitable due to its lower break-even threshold and historical win rates of 75–77%. The 3-team teaser, while crossing more key numbers, faces a higher hurdle and increased risk due to the third leg.

Challenges and Modern Adaptations

The Wong Teaser Strategy, while historically profitable, faces challenges in today’s betting landscape:

• Sportsbook Countermeasures: Sportsbooks adjust lines to avoid Wong-eligible spreads (e.g., moving from -7.5 to -9) and increase juice (e.g., from -110 to -130). Some books also treat pushes as losses, reducing profitability.
• Line Availability: Spreads of -7.5 to -8.5 or +1.5 to +2.5 are less common as sportsbooks adapt to the strategy’s popularity. Bettors must act quickly to capture these lines early in the week.
• Updated Strategies: Some bettors refine the Wong strategy by focusing on road teams, games with totals under 49, or using alternate lines to create custom teasers. For example, pairing a +2.5 underdog teased to +8.5 with a +3 underdog teased to +7.5 at better odds can maintain +EV.

Conclusion

The Wong Teaser Strategy remains a powerful tool for NFL bettors when applied correctly. By focusing on 6-point teasers that move favorites from -7.5 to -8.5 or underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5 through the key numbers of 3 and 7, bettors can achieve a historical win rate of 75–77%, exceeding the break-even threshold for -110 or -120 odds. Teasing totals is less advisable due to lower cumulative frequencies, but when necessary, target totals around 37, 41, 44, 47, or 51 in low-scoring games.

For a 3-team, 10-point teaser, the Wong principles can apply if spreads cross 10, 7, and 3, but the higher break-even threshold (80.6–82.7%) and reduced frequency of the 10-point margin make it less consistently profitable. Bettors should prioritize two-team, 6-point teasers, shop for favorable odds, and consider factors like low totals and road teams to maximize value. By adhering to these principles and adapting to modern sportsbook practices, the Wong Teaser Strategy can still provide an edge in NFL betting.