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Understanding Key Numbers in NFL Betting
Key numbers represent the most common margins of victory in NFL games, making them crucial for successful betting strategy. These numbers occur frequently. This is due to the NFL’s unique scoring system. Touchdowns are worth 7 points (6 + 1 for the extra point) and field goals are worth 3 points. For any serious sports bettor knowing your key numbers is imperative to any success. Especially if you bet any teasers and with strategy buying on and off these numbers.
The Primary Key Numbers for Point Spreads
3 Points – The Ultimate Key Number
Three points is the most critical number in NFL betting, representing the value of a single field goal. Since the start of the 2003 NFL season, 14.8% of all games have finished with a margin of victory of three points. This is by far the most common margin. Games are frequently decided by last-second field goals, making the difference between -2.5 and -3.5 enormous in terms of betting value.
Why 3 is crucial:
- Most common margin of victory in NFL history
- Represents a single field goal difference
- Creates maximum line value when buying points on or off this number
- Often determines overtime outcomes
7 Points – The Touchdown Margin
Seven points represents a single touchdown with an extra point, making it the second most important key number. Historical data shows that approximately 15-16% of NFL games are decided by exactly 7 points. Over 30% of games finish with either a 3-point or a 7-point margin of victory combined. This number is particularly significant because it represents one full scoring drive difference between teams.
Strategic importance of 7:
- Second most common winning margin
- Represents complete touchdown difference
- Critical for teaser betting strategies
- High frequency in divisional and close games
10 Points – The Two-Score Margin
Ten points represents the combination of a touchdown and field goal, making it the third key number. While less frequent than 3 and 7, it still appears in roughly 4-5% of games and represents a crucial psychological barrier between one-score and two-score games. Analysis from 1974-2014 shows that an average of 45.0% of NFL games finish with a margin of victory of 3, 7, 10, 4, 6, or 14 points combined, demonstrating how nearly half of all NFL games land on these key numbers.
Understanding the 10-point significance:
- Represents touchdown + field goal combination
- Psychological barrier between one and two possessions
- Important for live betting and in-game strategy
- Affects team play-calling and clock management
The Impact of Two-Point Conversions on Key Numbers
The NFL implemented the two-point conversion in 1994, but its impact on key numbers has been minimal. The traditional key numbers remain dominant because:
Low Success Rate and Usage: Only 47.5% of all 2-point conversions since 2015 have been successful, while the extra point succeeds about 95% of the time. Recent data shows NFL teams succeeded on just 31% of two-point conversion attempts in 2024, well below the historical break-even point of 47.6%.
Strategic Conservatism: Despite the mathematical advantage of attempting two-point conversions in certain situations, most coaches still opt for the higher-percentage extra point, maintaining the traditional 7-point touchdown value.
This explains why the 14.8% frequency for 3-point margins and 15-16% frequency for 7-point margins have remained consistent throughout the two-point conversion era, reinforcing the importance of these key numbers in modern NFL betting strategy.
Secondary Key Numbers
6 Points
Six points represents two field goals or a touchdown without the extra point (rare but possible). This number has gained importance with rule changes affecting extra points.
4 Points
Four points typically represents a touchdown with a failed extra point plus a field goal, or a safety plus a field goal. While less common, it appears frequently enough to be considered.
14 Points
Fourteen points represents exactly two touchdowns with extra points, making it a significant margin for blowout scenarios.
Key Numbers for Scoring Totals (Over/Under)
The total points scored in NFL games also cluster around specific numbers, creating key totals that bettors should understand:
Primary Total Key Numbers
41 Points – The most common total score in NFL games at 3.82% frequency. This represents combinations like 24-17, 21-20, or similar close-game scenarios.
40 Points – Second most common at 3.75%, representing slightly lower-scoring affairs.
51 Points – Third most common at 3.67%, indicating higher-scoring games with multiple touchdowns.
47 Points – Fourth most common at 3.45%, often seen in games with 4-5 total touchdowns.
44 Points – Fifth most common at 3.37%, representing moderate scoring games.
Secondary Total Key Numbers
Other significant totals include: 37, 43, 33, 48, 54, and 38 points. These numbers frequently appear due to common scoring combinations involving touchdowns and field goals.
Strategic Implications: Getting On and Off Key Numbers
Point Spread Strategy
Getting Off Key Numbers: When you’re betting on a team at exactly -3 or -7, you’re in a vulnerable position. If the game lands exactly on that number, you push (tie) instead of winning. Consider these strategies:
- Buying Points: Most sportsbooks allow you to buy a half-point, but expect to pay premium odds (often -130 instead of -110) when moving off key numbers
- Shopping Lines: Different sportsbooks may offer -2.5 or -3.5 instead of -3, eliminating the push possibility
- Alternative Spreads: Look for alternate lines that naturally avoid key numbers
Getting Onto Key Numbers: When you can get a favorite at -2.5 instead of -3.5, or an underdog at +3.5 instead of +2.5, you’re gaining significant value by positioning yourself favorably around the key number.
Total Points Strategy
Similar principles apply to totals. Getting a total at 40.5 instead of 41.5 or 42.5 can provide significant value given how often games land on these key numbers.
NFL Teaser Betting Strategy
Teaser bets allow you to adjust point spreads in your favor, typically by 6, 6.5, or 7 points. The key to successful teaser betting is moving through multiple key numbers.
The Wong Teaser Strategy
Named after gambling expert Stanford Wong, this strategy focuses on crossing both 3 and 7 with your teaser legs:
Optimal Teaser Selections:
- Underdogs +1.5 to +2.5: A 6-point teaser moves these to +7.5 to +8.5, crossing through key numbers 3, 6, and 7
- Favorites -7.5 to -8.5: A 6-point teaser moves these to -1.5 to -2.5, crossing back through 7, 6, and 3
Why This Works: When you move an underdog from +2 to +8 with a 6-point teaser, you gain value at three key numbers:
- Original line might lose by exactly 3 (push becomes win)
- Original line might lose by exactly 6 (loss becomes win)
- Original line might lose by exactly 7 (loss becomes win)
Two-Team Teaser Mathematics
For a standard two-team teaser at -110 odds, each leg must win approximately 72.37% of the time to break even. By crossing key numbers, you significantly improve your chances of achieving this win rate.
Best Teaser Scenarios:
- 6-Point Teasers: Most common and offer good value when crossing key numbers
- 6.5-Point Teasers: Provide extra half-point insurance while still crossing key numbers
- 7-Point Teasers: Maximum key number crossing but at reduced odds
Advanced Teaser Strategy
Situational Considerations:
- Divisional Games: Often closer, making key numbers even more important
- Weather Games: Lower-scoring games make certain key numbers more likely
- High-Total Games: In games with totals over 48, individual points matter less
- Low-Total Games: In games under 42, every point becomes more valuable
Avoiding Teaser Traps:
- Don’t tease through zero (avoid favorites -6 to underdogs +1)
- Avoid large favorites beyond -10 (diminishing returns)
- Don’t tease totals that don’t cross key numbers
- Avoid games with totals above 52 (points lose value)
Line Shopping and Timing
Finding Value Around Key Numbers
Pre-Game Strategy:
- Shop multiple sportsbooks for the best number
- Look for discrepancies where one book offers -2.5 while others show -3
- Consider alternate lines that may offer better key number positioning
Live Betting Opportunities: Key numbers become even more important in live betting as game situations develop. A team down by 10 with 5 minutes left faces different strategic decisions than a team down by 9 or 11.
Bankroll Management with Key Numbers
Bet Sizing Strategy
Larger Bets on Favorable Key Numbers: When you find a line that positions you favorably around key numbers (getting +3.5 instead of +2.5), consider increasing your bet size due to the additional value.
Smaller Bets on Unfavorable Positions: When forced to bet on exact key numbers (where a push is possible), consider reducing bet size to account for the reduced expected value.
Risk Management
Teaser Bankroll Allocation: Teasers should represent a smaller portion of your overall betting bankroll due to their reduced odds and requirement for multiple correct predictions.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Point Spread Errors
- Paying excessive juice to buy points off non-key numbers
- Ignoring key numbers when the line moves
- Focusing only on 3 and 7 while ignoring secondary key numbers
Teaser Mistakes
- Using teams that don’t cross key numbers
- Teasing large favorites or underdogs
- Including too many legs (stick to 2-3 team teasers)
- Teasing totals in high-scoring games where points lose value
Total Betting Errors
- Ignoring key totals when line shopping
- Not considering pace of play and scoring trends
- Failing to account for weather in total key number strategy
Conclusion
Understanding and utilizing key numbers is fundamental to successful NFL betting. The numbers 3, 7, and 10 for point spreads, along with totals clustering around 41, 40, and 51, create opportunities for sophisticated bettors to find value that casual bettors miss.
The key to success lies not just in knowing these numbers, but in understanding how to position your bets favorably around them through line shopping, point buying, and teaser strategies. When executed properly, a key numbers-based approach can significantly improve your long-term betting results.
Remember that key numbers represent probabilities, not guarantees. They should be one component of a comprehensive betting strategy that includes thorough game analysis, bankroll management, and disciplined execution. The goal is to identify spots where the betting market hasn’t fully accounted for the mathematical advantages that key numbers provide.
***Thanks to Claude AI for Help With this Article.
