Short on OL, the Tennessee Titans Try to Hold Down Fort against the San Francisco 49ers
By Charles Jay
It might be surprising to some that the San Francisco 49ers might be a favorite in the Thursday night football odds as they pay a visit to a division leader. But that’s exactly the case as they land in Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. Most BetAnySports customers are aware of the playoff situation in both conferences, and this game is going to have a tremendous impact on it.
The Niners (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) are one game ahead in the race for the third and final wild card spot in the NFC. And there are a lot of teams hot on their trail, so there is no room for error.
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Thursday Night Football Odds — A Jimmy G revival
They have come on at the right time, winning five of their last six games. And they have been getting play that is more than steady out of Jimmy Garoppolo, who understood that his future was a little up in the air when the team made Trey Lance their first-round draft pick.
And let’s put it this way – Jimmy G has made it so that Lance hasn’t even seen the field to any substantial extent. Quietly, he leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt. So suffice it to say that he is a solution, not a problem.
Thursday Night Football Odds — How the Titans are doing without Henry
Derrick Henry is a dynamic back. And the Titans based a lot of their success by building the entire offense around his talents. When you can work with a solid foundation in a running game, you are going to be a real headache for opponents.
When Henry was leading the NFL in rushing the last two years, with totals of 1540 and 2027 yards, he was making Ryan Tannehill a much more efficient quarterback. And he was leading the NFL again with 937 yards in eight games when he suffered a foot injury which has sidelined him.
Since the injury, Tannehill has four TD passes with seven interceptions. And he has registered his three lowest passer ratings of the season over the last four games.
Thursday Night Football Odds — Here are the numbers….
In the odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Niners are laying points on the road:
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115)
Tennessee Titans +3 (-105)
Over 44 points -110
Under 44 points -110
Thursday Night Football Odds — Niners’ ground attack needs to work
A basic principle of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive philosophy is the ability to run the ball. And they are going to try to do it one way or another. Jeff Wilson will have to assume most of the burden, because Elijah Mitchell is out with an injury. And he did a great job last week, with 110 yards.
With injuries thinning out the backfield this season, Shanahan has given Deebo Samuel some service at running back. The Niners have used the run on 47.7% of their plays this season, and that, in this day and age, demonstrates a real commitment.
Samuel leads the NFL with 17.8 yards per catch. And tight end George Kittle has caught fire, with 425 receiving yards in the last three games. But the Titans have been pretty strong when defending against the tight end position. They have allowed just 5.17 yards per pass attempt and 35.4 yards per game.
Thursday Night Football Odds — Our conclusion
The Titans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS and one game ahead of Indidnapolis in the AFC South) will likely have the services of Julio Jones and AJ Brown at wide receiver. But they have bad news to report on the offensive line. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and left guard Rodger Saffold won’t be playing. Nick Bosa has 15 sacks, and the Niners possess the fifth-best sack percentage in the league, so that’s a problem for Tannehill.
The Niners have a great offensive line, so they’ll have success on the ground, and they are also superior to everyone else in the red zone, scoring touchdowns 73.8% of the time. That’s way ahead of anyone else.
San Francisco has won five games on the road, and Tennessee has lost three of its last four, with 13 turnovers in those defeats. The Niners are the more solid choice here.
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