Dolphins’ QB Will Be a Mystery Until Game Time on Thursday Night Football
By Charles Jay
This week it’s become a little more of a challenge in Thursday Night Football in the NFL betting from one perspective, because we actually don’t know who the quarterback for one of the teams is going to be.
BetAnySports customers will have to wait until shortly before game time to find out whether it’s going to be Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett behind center for the Miami Dolphins.
Tua is listed as a game-time decision, as he has a fracture on the middle finger of his throwing hand. That is the kind of thing that is tough to navigate on a short week. He had to sit out west week’s game against Houston. WR Will Fuller will also be missing from the lineup, but he hasn’t done the Dolphins much good. For the Ravens, wide receiver Sammy Watkins is expected to play, despite a thigh injury.
There aren’t so many doubts about the Baltimore Ravens. Coming off their 34 – 31 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings, the Ravens will have Lamar Jackson, aiming for another MVP season, along with what could arguably be the biggest, baddest rushing game in the National Football League.
And that is not a great prospect for the 2 – 7 Dolphins.
The Ravens come into this game with a 6-2 mark, and both of these squads are 3 – 5 against the spread.
Kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. Eastern time at Hard Rock stadium in Miami Gardens, and you’ll see it either on the Fox Network, NFL Network or Amazon Prime Video.
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Thursday Night Football NFL Betting — Here are the numbers….
In the odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, Baltimore is laying some points on the road
Baltimore Ravens – 9 (- 105)
Miami Dolphins + 9 ( – 115)
Over 46 points – 110
Under 46 points – 110
And do not forget that you’ve got reduced juice waiting for you at BetAnySports, along with real-time wagering through Premier Lines, Ultimate Lines and Super Lines.
Thursday Night Football NFL Betting – What either Dolphin quarterback must deal with
The offensive line for the Dolphins has been so bad that not only do they lead the NFL in giving up quarterback pressures, they’ve got 47 more than any other team.
Thus, whether the quarterback is Jacoby Brissett or Tua, they are going to have to get rid of the ball in a hurry. People may wonder why rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has averaged only 8.9 per reception this season, less than half his figure at Alabama. Well, the answer is that Tua has to throw to him quicker. In point of fact, Miami’s regular starting quarterback has an average pocket time of 2.1 seconds before he releases the ball, and that is the fastest in the NFL. It’s not so much that the guy makes quick decisions, it’s that he’s just getting rid of the ball wherever he can, as fast as he can. And that does not make for a very efficient offense.
Brissett and Tua are 27th and 28th, respectively, in the NFL when it comes to intended air yards, and that means they are not going very far beyond the line of scrimmage.
So in some ways, it may not matter all that much who starts for the Dolphins. Both of these guys are going to be under siege if they hold it too long. Miami drafted tackle Liam Eichenberg out of Notre Dame on the second round, and the seven sacks he has given up more sacks are more than any other tackle in the NFL. These offensive linemen have shifted around so much that it’s been a ball of confusion.
Thursday Night Football NFL Betting – it’s about the ground game
You won’t find more of a disparity between two teams in any matchup when it comes to their ability to run the football. Baltimore, even though it lost its top three running backs before training camp was out, has averaged 161.6 yards on the ground per game. That’s best in the NFL. Of course, Lamar Jackson leads with 600 yards, but there is also a “committee” that includes Ty’son Williams, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell. Latavius Murray is another member of that combination, but he is doubtful with an ankle injury.
On the other hand, the Dolphins are last in rushing, averaging just 75.1 yards per game. And they play like it too, as only two teams have run the ball less frequently as a percentage of total plays.
Consequently, play action does not exactly work like a charm. Tua’s yards per attempt on play-action is just 6.3. For perspective, let’s compare that to his college teammate, Philly’s Jalen Hurts, who averages 10.6 yards on those plays.
Thursday Night Football NFL Betting – Our conclusion
Fundamentally, there is just no comparison between these two teams at this very moment. Behind offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is a genius of the running game, Baltimore has been able to fashion an attack despite losing key people. On the other hand, the Dolphins have two different offensive coordinators, and yet there is a third person calling plays from the booth. The offensive line staff is relatively inexperienced. And so where it counts, they are weak.
We imagine that if Tua plays, he’s got to be affected by that fractured finger, so any way you look at it, the Ravens have a tremendous matchup edge. As a result, we feel the most judicious thing to do here is to lay the points.
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