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Super Bowl LIV Spread Holds Firm; Total Climbs

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Chiefs and 49ers Setup for Great Super Bowl LIV Matchup

Super Bowl Sunday is always better when it’s a classic battle between offense and defense. That’ll be the case this Sunday at Super Bowl LIV. The game will broadcast live from Miami Gardens at 6:30 PM ET on Fox. The matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will also have one of the biggest totals the Big Game has ever seen. The over/under has moved from 53 points at the open to 54.5.

TIME: 6:30 p.m. ET. TV: FOX. LINE: Chiefs -1.5 O/U: 54.5

The Chiefs supply the offensive firepower in this contest and are holding steady as 1.5-point favorites with two days left before their first Super Bowl in 50 years. The 49ers bring one of the best defenses in the league to Hard Rock Stadium. They also have some scoring punch, with two highly underrated skill players in QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Raheem Mostert.

Mostert will be even more important for San Francisco if starting tailback Tevin Coleman can’t play Sunday. Coleman was able to do some running during Thursday’s practice as his dislocated shoulder looks better. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee) skipped that day, but returned to the field on Friday and is expected to play.

49ers and Chiefs Have Many Similarities

Kansas City is riding an eight-game winning streak. They are vying to win the teams first Super Bowl since 1970. They have a good shot behind Mahomes and coach Andy Reid. The head coach is hoping to hoist his first Lombardi Trophy despite seven appearances in a conference championship game. “They have a great offense and obviously a ton of playmakers,” San Francisco cornerback Richard Sherman said of Kansas City, which piled up 86 points in playoff wins over Houston and Tennessee. “That’s why they’re here, that’s why they made it to the show.” The Chiefs are in the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

The 49ers ended a five-year drought behind a balanced offense led by Garoppolo and the 2nd-ranked defense in the NFL to advance to their seventh Super Bowl. This is the franchise’s first since the 2012 season. “They’re good everywhere,” Mahomes said. “They play off each other, they know the scheme, they do it well. So for us it’s about going through the process, going through the game plan and just executing the plays when coach Reid calls them.”

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This, That, and a Dart Throw

The 49ers are 15-3 on the season. They are the third team to reach the Super Bowl after winning four or fewer games the season before. San Francisco averaged 235.8 yards rushing in routing Minnesota (27-10) and Green Bay (37-20). Garoppolo has only passed for 208 yards during this postseason. He attempted a mere eight passes in the NFC title game. He did need to as running back Raheem Mostert gashed the Packers for 220 yards and four touchdowns. That gives him 11 rushing scores in his last eight games.

Garoppolo showed he can go head-to-head with the NFL’s elite, throwing for 349 yards and four TD’s in a 48-46 win at New Orleans on Dec. 8th. He has an outstanding tight end in George Kittle. He has 173 catches over the past two seasons. Nick Bosa is part of an stellar defensive front. He has 9.0 sacks in the regular season and 3.0 in the playoffs.

The Chiefs are 14-4 on the season. Mahomes saw his MVP-winning season end with an overtime loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game last season. He has thrown for 19 touchdowns with only four interceptions since missing two games with a knee injury. The gunslinger has eight scores and zero picks in the playoffs.

Mahomes guided Kansas City to 41 unanswered points against Houston. It erased a 24-point deficit. He then rallied his team from 10 points down against Tennessee. Mahomes also adding a spark to the offense with 53 yards rushing in each win. Tyreek Hill caught two scoring passes in the AFC Championship Game and Travis Kelce had three TD receptions in the playoff opener. Kelce is the only tight end with four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Frank Clark has 4.0 sacks in the playoffs for a defense that allowed 10.4 points over the last five regular-season games.

The Dart Throw: Kansas City 31, San Francisco 24

Super Bowl LIV Trends

Kansas City Chiefs
  • Trend Under is 7-2-1 in Chiefs last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Hit % 77.80% (10) O/U 2|7 Push 1 W/L
  • Under is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. 71.40% (14) 4|10 0
  • Over is 13-2-1 in Chiefs last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. 86.70% (16) 13|2 1
  • Under is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. 87.50% (8) 1|7 0
San Francisco 49ers
  • Trend Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Hit % 71.40% (7) O/U 2|7 Push 1 W/L
  • Over is 7-2-1 in 49ers last 10 games as a favorite. 77.80% (10) 7|2 1
  • Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. 80.00% (10) 1|7 0
  • Over is 5-1-1 in 49ers last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. 83.30% (7) 7|3 0
Super Bowl LIV Meetings Trends
  • Trend 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Hit % 20.00% (5) O/U Push 0 W/L 1|4
  • Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. 100.00% (4) 0 4|0

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Dirty has been an employee or owner of some of the top online sports gambling forums since 1998. He worked at EOG.com from it's inception until 2008 when he left and opened GamblingIQ and then in 2012 opened Handicappers Hidaway. He has written hundreds af articles over the years and always has his "Dirty Dozen" College Football poll up starting the first week of October.
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