NL Wild Card Game is Win and Your In
The Colorado Rockies battle the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card game. The winner moves on to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS and the loser going home.
Tuesday, October 2 at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN.
Wrigley Field
Mostly Cloudy 65°F
Wind: 7mph blowing out to left
Odds: Cubs are -133-moneyline favorites. The total is 7 Under -115.
Freeland has won eight straight decisions
Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) takes the hill for the Rockies in this must-win contest. Freeland allowed two earned runs on 11 hits and a walk with four strikeouts in a 5-2 win against the Nationals last Friday.
He’s 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts. The kid hasn’t lost since August 1st.
The Rockies scored 780 runs (7th in the majors). They are putting up 4.80 runs per game (7th), hitting .256 (6th) with 208 home runs (9th).
Colorado ranked 20th with a 4.33 ERA, 17th with a 1.31 WHIP and 14th with 1399 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranked 26th with a 4.63 ERA.
Nolan Arenado led the Rockies with a .297 batting average, 38 home runs, 110 RBI and a .374 OBP. Trevor Story had 37 home runs and 108 RBI. Charlie Blackmon had 29 home runs, 70 RBI and a team-best 182 hits.
Lester has won three straight starts
Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) starts for the Cubs. Lester threw six scoreless innings in a 3-0 win against the Pirates last Thursday. He surrendered three hits and four walks with three strikeouts.
The veteran left-hander is 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his last seven starts. He’s 3-0 in his last three starts, giving up just two earned runs in 18 innings of work, posting a 1.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
The Cubs scored 761 runs (9th in the majors). They are putting up 4.69 runs per game (9th), hitting .258 (4th) with 166 home runs (23rd).
Chicago ranked 3rd with a 3.65 ERA, 18th with a 1.31 WHIP and 20th with 1327 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranked 2nd with a 3.34 ERA.
Javier Baez led the Cubs with 34 home runs, 111 RBI and 176 hits. Kyle Schwarber had 26 home runs and 61 RBI and Anthony Rizzo had 25 home runs and 101 RBI.
MLB Trends:
The Under is:
22-8 in Colorado’s last 30 games against a left-handed starter
13-4 in Colorado’s last 17 games following a loss
5-1 in Colorado’s last six road games against a left-handed starter
4-1-1 in Colorado’s last six road games against a team with a winning record
4-1-1 in Colorado’s last six road games
13-3 in Freeland’s last 16 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game
21-7-2 in Freeland’s last 30 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance
5-1 in Chicago’s last six postseason home games
11-3 in Chicago’s last 14 home games
11-4 in Chicago’s last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record
5-2 in Lester’s last seven home starts against a team with a winning record
4-0 in Lester’s last four home starts against the Rockies
4-0 in Lester’s last four starts against the Rockies
The Rockies are forced to play this Wild Card game in Chicago after losing in Los Angeles yesterday. The loss causes them to have back-to-back days with travel and time zone change involved.
Colorado will have their ace on the mound and the Chicago offense has been ice-cold lately. I’m looking at the Under, as Jon Lester has been just as dominant as Kyle Freeland as of late and the Rockies will be tired.
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-115) at Jazz Sports
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