Can the Indianapolis Colts Win a Statement Game?
Indianapolis Colts fans were disappointed when their team lost their season opener. They fell in Jacksonville to the Jaguars by a score of 27-20. The team has rebounded nicely and has won six out of eight games.
They have lost to the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens which are two pretty good teams to say the least. The wins include a 34-17 win over the Tennessee Titans last Thursday. The victory allowed the Colts to move into first place in the AFC South.
Next up for the Colts is a visit from the Green Bay Packers. The Pack went into their bye with a 4-0 record. Things have not gone smoothly after as the team has gone just 2-3 since then. They got routed in Tampa Bay, went to Houston to beat the woeful Texans, and then they got rolled at home by the Minnesota Vikings.
Since then, they have beaten an undermanned San Francisco team and barely escaped a home upset at the hands of the Jaguars. The Packers are 7-2, but there are some cracks forming and can they correct them in time for today’s game.
This game opened up at 2.5 and was jockeying back and forth all week. Now it seems to have settled at the Colts -1.5 and the total has held steady.
Take a look at our preview of this inter-conference matchup.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (November 22)
When: Sunday, November 22, 2020, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: FOX
Radio: WTMJ 620 Milwaukee / WFNI 1070 AM Indianapolis
JAZZ Sports Odds: Colts -1.5 / Total 51.5*
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Why the Packers Will Win
Green Bay has played well on the road this season. They have won four of their last five games away from Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers continues to put up huge numbers. He has a ridiculous 26:3 TD:INT ratio, and what is scary is two of those picks coming against Tampa Bay. Rodgers has been taking advantage of no crowds in the stands and the lack of home field advantage for many teams.
On the season he has 2,578 passing yards and a 67.8 pass completion rate. In his last four games Rodgers has thrown 13 touchdown passes. His top targets have been Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The duo has combined for 13 scores and over 1,200 yards. On the ground the Packers have the punishing Aaron Jones. He has rumbled for 493 yards.
The defense has been decent so far in this Covid decimated season. They have allowed 24.9 points per game. Za’Darius Smith has led a fearsome pass rush. He has racked up eight sacks in nine games.
The Packers do lead the NFC North and their offense has been high-octane. Most of their seven wins have come against losing squads and only one has come against a winning team.
Why the Colts Will Win
Philip Rivers has done a reasonable job leading the Indianapolis offense. He has been getting better after learning a new system and adjusting to a new team. His 11:7 TD:INT ratio is far from elite, but should get better as the season moves along. He has thrown no more than one touchdown pass in seven of his last nine. The Colts ride their running game behind the 428 yards and four scores that Jonathan Taylor has posted.
Indianapolis permits under 20 points per game and 291 yards. Denico Autry has already posted six sacks this year. Darius Leonard leads the team with 60 tackles.
The Colts have won three games at home this year by an average of 16.6 points. If their defense can stand tall and they can run the ball on first down they should be able to win.
The Final Word
On paper the Colts look like the winning team. They have the better defense and they have the better running game. When I think of the quarterback duel between Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers I don’t see why Rodgers wouldn’t be able to engineer a comeback. I don’t trust Rivers to out-duel Rodgers, so give me the Packers to win a close one.
The Dart Throw: Packers 27, Colts 21
*Odds are subject to change.
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds & Trends
| Indianapolis Colts |
|---|
| Indianapolis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games |
| The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games |
| Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home |
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games at home |
| Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay |
| Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay |
| The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing Green Bay |
| Indianapolis is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay |
| Green Bay Packers |
|---|
| Green Bay is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis |
| Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games |
| Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games |
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 6 games |
| Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road |
| Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road |
| The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 6 games on the road |
| Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis |
| Green Bay is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis |
| The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis |
Next up:
Green Bay home to Chicago Sunday, November 29
Indianapolis home to Tennessee Sunday, November 29
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