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NBA Monday Free Pick- Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets Basketball

Can the Mavericks Contain Harden?

Monday night’s featured matchup on NBA TV at 8 p.m. is a Southwest Division tilt in Texas with the Dallas Mavericks going on the road to face the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are favored by 10.5 points with BetAnySports setting the total at 225 points.

Dallas will wrap up its three-game home stand on Sunday against Portland after beating Charlotte 99-93 last Wednesday ahead of Friday night’s 122-117 loss to Milwaukee. The Mavericks failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs in Friday’s loss after posting a perfect 5-0 record against the spread in their previous five games. The total went OVER 226 points in the loss to the Bucks after staying UNDER in their previous four games.

The Mavericks appear to be raising the white flag on the season with their recent personnel moves ahead of last Thursday’s trade deadline. The most notable move jettisoned Harrison Barnes steep cap liability in a trade to Sacramento. He was the team’s second leading scorer with 17.7 points after Luca Doncic, who is averaging 20.6 points a game. Dallas is ranked 21st in the NBA in scoring with 109.1 PPG. It ranks 11th in points allowed (108.6).

The Rockets have already lost the first two meetings this season against their division rivals SU and ATS. More recently, their modest three-game SU winning streak came to an end on Saturday night with a 117-112 loss to Oklahoma City as 2.5-point home favorites. Houston is now a very costly 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games, including a 1-5 mark covering the closing number at BetAnySports in its last six home games. The total has gone OVER in four of its last six games played at home.

James Harden scored 42 points in Saturday’s loss after Paul George posted a game-high 45 points for OKC. The Rockets blew a 26-point lead in that game. Chris Paul added 18 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists, but Houston’s defense let that game slip away. With Harden averaging 36.6 points a game, the Rockets’ 113.1-point scoring average in ranked 11th in the league. They fall to 14th on the list at the other end of the court with a points-allowed average of 111.0.

Houston had won the previous eight meetings between the two before this season and I like its chances to snap the two-game SU skid on Monday night. My ‘best bet’ pick in this matchup is still the UNDER on the total line.

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NBA Betting Odds & Trends

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 6 games
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Houston
Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas’s last 6 games when playing Houston
Dallas is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games at home
Houston is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Dallas
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games when playing Dallas
Houston is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

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