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NBA Finals Prop Bets — Does Tatum’s role reversal affect Game 2 prop?

The Nba Finals

What are the Top Prop Bets in the NBA Finals Game 2? Keep Reading

By Charles Jay

The Boston Celtics did a hell of a job coming back from 15 points down in Game 1 to win by twelve points over the Golden State Warriors in what was an historic Game 1 meltdown by the visiting team. Now they are seeking payback, but they also must change the way they play on the defensive end.

How will that affect what happens with Jayson Tatum, who is Boston’s big scorer and has emerged as one of the elite players in the NBA? Game 2 of the Finals starts at 8 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

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There is also “Prop Builder,” which offers hundreds of conceivable angles to ponder.

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NBA Finals Props — How many points will Jayson Tatum score?

One of those angles involves how prominent Tatum will be on the scoring sheet. Here is the over-under on that:

Over 26.5 points -126
Under 26.5 points -104

As you can see, that is pretty much in line with what Tatum’s scoring average has been over the last two seasons (26.7 ppg), although it’s a jump from what he tallied in Game 1.

NBA Finals Props — The Game 1 story

Tatum just didn’t shoot well in Game 1, going just 3-for-17 from the field and registering 12 points. To his credit, however, he did quite a bit as a playmaker, facilitating what his teammates were able to do. He had 13 assists, which was his highest figure this season, during the regular schedule or the playoffs.

And they were doubly important (well, we should say 50% more important), since twelve of those assists resulted in three-point shots being made. Ansd six of THOSE came in the fourth quarter, where the Celtics outscored Golden State by the obscene margin of 40-16. Incredibly Tatum went scoreless during the entire fourth quarter of the game.

Undoubtedly the strategy employed by G-State was to put Tatum in a position where he wasn’t taking good shots and to make him give up the ball. That wasn’t successful.

NBA Finals Props — Over or under?

We would lean “Over” here, considering that Tatum has come back from lousy shooting nights in these playoffs with totals of 39 and 30points against Brooklyn and Milwaukee, respectively.

Also, the Warriors won’t be able to survive if they don’t pay more attention to guys standing outside of the three-point line. That should open up things for Tatum a bit. And we think that G-State’s defensive stopper – Draymond Green – may be assigned more to Jaylen Brown.

Plus, this is a reasonable number.

NBA Finals Props — What about Tatum’s assists?

Here are the numbers from BetAnySports on the assist total:

Over 6.5 Assists +114
Under 6.5 Assists -150

It should be noted that Tatum averaged a career-high in assists this season, but it was only 4.4 per game. Last season it was slightly less than that.

But in each of the last six playoff series he’s played he has exceeded that. And in the three series he’s played this season he has averaged 7.3, 5.4 and 5.6. Obviously this has a lot to do with the way the opposition chooses to defend him. And it is part of the game plan that he fill more of a role creating stuff for others when the focus is on him.

But we would expect that the Warriors are going to make some defensive adjustments, because they simply can’t allow the Celtics to make 21 three-pointers again. So this may bring Tatum back into the picture as a primary scorer. And we can’t sit here and tell you that the guys who came through with a lot of treys on Thursday, like Al Horford and Derrick White, are going to be able to duplicate that effort. So we’ll lean to the “Under” here.

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Dirty has been an employee or owner of some of the top online sports gambling forums since 1998. He worked at EOG.com from it's inception until 2008 when he left and opened GamblingIQ and then in 2012 opened Handicappers Hidaway. He has written hundreds af articles over the years and always has his "Dirty Dozen" College Football poll up starting the first week of October.
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