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NBA Finals Picks — Bucks Only Have to Be Half-Good For Us in Game 3

Nba Finals 2021 Bucks Vs Suns

Milwaukee has Backs Against the Wall Again in 2021 NBA Finals

By Charles Jay

Well, as we proceed with our NBA Finals picks, at least we can say the Milwaukee Bucks aren’t totally unfamiliar with this situation. Here they are, down two games to zero, coming home to begin the road back. They were able to accomplish what seemed very likely against the Brooklyn Nets. Of course, some members of our BetAnySports audience will say that they benefited from Brooklyn injuries.

And there are no such absences on the side of the Phoenix Suns, who are the team operating with the two-game advantage. So it is not an easy task as the teams move ahead with Game 3, which is slated to begin at 8:05 PM ET on Sunday at the Fiserv Forum.

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NBA Finals Picks — Game 2 not a good one for Bucks

Milwaukee lost by a 118-105 margin in Game 1. But the second game, even though it was only a ten-point decision (118-108), may have been more discouraging.

That is because the Bucks, who unexpectedly welcomed Giannis Antetokounmpo back to the lineup for the opener, got a career playoff-high 42 points out of him in Game 2. And that was not enough, because the Suns were super-sharp from beyond the three-point line.

If you look at the Bucks, they are a solid defensive team. But part of their strategy is that they are going to allow teams to go crazy with three-point shooting if they want, because they are very confident about being able to pull down misses, since they lead all playoff teams in defensive rebounding percentage.

As a result, they allowed the second most three-point attempts in the NBA. So it stands to reason that when an opponent can get hot from the outside, they can present an obstacle that is too much to overcome.

That’s what happened, as Phoenix hit 20 of 40 triples. Ouch.

NBA Finals Picks – Looking at the numbers

Here are the odds on Game 3, as they have been posted by the folks at BetAnySports:

Milwaukee Bucks  -4
Phoenix Suns  +4

Over 222 points -110
Under 222 points -110

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NBA FInals Picks — Everybody coming up big for Phoenix

Words almost can not describe the way the Phoenix backcourt has performed over the first two games. Chris Paul and Devin Booker have combined for 113 points. That much production hasn’t been seen over the first two Finals games by an NBA backcourt in the last half-century. So that’s pretty monumental.

We have explained before that DeAndre Ayton was a monster of sorts in Game 1, with 22 points and 19 rebounds. Well, Mikal Bridges, generally known as a middling scorer and strong defender, took control in game 2, with 27 points. Also, Jae Crowder, who missed all eight shots from the field in Game 1, made three triples in Game 2 and added ten rebounds. This kind of balance presents problems for the Bucks as well.

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NBA Finals Picks — The light at the end of Milwaukee’s tunnel

Obviously getting a big game from Giannis was very encouraging for those Milwaukee backers who were wondered if he could be close to 100% after injuring his knee.

But Khris Middleton has proven to be a more effective scorer at home than on the road. At Fiserv Forum he averages 24 points in the playoffs on 51% shooting and 43% triples, compared with 22.3 points, 40% and 28%, respectively.

He’ll be needed in Game 3, that’s for sure.

NBA Finals Picks — Well, what’s the pick?

We’re kind of hesitant to go all-in on the Bucks, because the Suns have been so proficient on the road, winning 30 of 44 games straight-up, including playoff action. They have actually closed out a couple of series on the road. And they have covered eight of ten as a road dog in these playoffs.

But if we take the first half proposition, things may carry more value for us with the Bucks. A first half home favorite is a 65% proposition over the last 18 seasons when coming home after a 2-0 deficit. That works for us here, as we lay 3.5 points with Milwaukee for the first half only.

Make your way over to the newly-designed BetAnySports, where you can enjoy many options on NBA Finals action, including alternate lines, and of course, player props…… And as always, you have the chance to play with “Less Juice.”  ……Then check out Super Lines or Ultimate Lines and wager in real time…… They let you open up an account in a lot of ways, and one of them is Bitcoin, which gives you a fee-free, lightning-quick transaction!

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Dirty has been an employee or owner of some of the top online sports gambling forums since 1998. He worked at EOG.com from it's inception until 2008 when he left and opened GamblingIQ and then in 2012 opened Handicappers Hidaway. He has written hundreds af articles over the years and always has his "Dirty Dozen" College Football poll up starting the first week of October.
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