Can the Pacers Pull off the Upset Against the Thunder in the NBA Finals Game 7?
The 2025 NBA Finals have culminated in a thrilling Game 7 showdown. The matchup features the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. It is set for Sunday, June 22, at 8:00 PM ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. This winner-take-all matchup promises to crown a first-time NBA champion. Both teams showcase exceptional talent, depth, and resilience. They have competed throughout a tightly contested series. Below is a detailed overview. It covers current odds, injury updates, key matchups, and predictions. It also includes how to watch the game on TV.
Current Odds & Betting Insights
All Lines from Bet105 Reduced Juice Sportsbook
- Point Spread: Thunder ‑7 (-104); Pacers +7 (-102)
- Moneyline: Thunder ‑255, Pacers +233
- Over/Under: 215.5 total points; Under -111; Over -101
Early sharp action on Indiana forced books to shift the line from ‑9 to around ‑7 or 7.5 (espn.com). Historically, Game 7s tend to be close, with the last one to cover an eight‑point spread being a rare exception. (cbssports.com).
Injury & Availability Update
Injury concerns have played a significant role in this series, particularly for the Pacers. Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been nursing a strained right calf. He is not listed on the injury report for Game 7. This is a positive sign after he played 23 minutes in Game 6. He contributed 14 points and five assists despite limited mobility. The Pacers will be without Jarace Walker due to a right ankle sprain. Isaiah Jackson is also out with an Achilles injury. Both are ruled out for the finale.
For the Thunder, rookie Nikola Topic remains sidelined with a knee injury. The team is otherwise at full strength. Key players like Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso have returned earlier in the season from their respective injuries. The health of Haliburton remains a critical factor, as his playmaking ability could dictate Indiana’s offensive flow.
Both teams enter Game 7 nearly fully healthy, but key notes:
- Indiana Pacers:
- Tyrese Haliburton (calf strain) listed as questionable/game‑time decision, expected to play despite reduced mobility (si.com).
- Jarace Walker (ankle sprain) and Isaiah Jackson (Achilles tear) are out.
- Oklahoma City Thunder:
- Only Nikola Topic is out (ACL), but he’s a non‑rotation player anyway (si.com).
How to Watch
- Date/Time: Sunday, June 22, tip-off at 8 PM ET (7 PM local CDT).
- TV: ABC (apnews.com)
- Streaming: Fubo and other platforms carrying ABC (local restrictions may apply) (apnews.com).
Key Matchups to Watch
Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
- SGA has been a force. He is the MVP, averaging nearly 30 PPG in Finals. He delivered legendary performances with 38 in Game 1, 34 in Game 2, and 31 in Game 5. These set new playoff milestones.
- Haliburton is Indiana’s engine—leading scorer/playmaker, though limited by calf soreness (apnews.com). He hit a legendary buzzer‑beater and remains the offense’s fulcrum.
Jalen Williams vs. Pacers’ Perimeter Defense
- Williams emerged all‑star this season and has shown flashes—though spotty shooting during Western Semis (en.wikipedia.org).
- Indiana’s guards (especially T. J. McConnell) will look to pressure him and clog passing lanes.
Bench Battle: T. J. McConnell & Role Players
- McConnell (11.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 54 FG%) has energized Indiana’s second unit (espn.com).
- OKC’s bench is shorter; big performances here could swing momentum.
Defense & Turnovers
- Indiana forced 21 turnovers in Game 6; SGA had eight turnovers late (aseaofblue.com).
- OKC needs sharp, mistake‑free play and half‑court execution; games like this often come down to crunch-time turnovers .
Strategic Matchups & Coach X‑Factors
- Rick Carlisle (Pacers): Renowned for upsets—used zone/deep rotation to destabilize OKC .
- Mark Daigneault (Thunder): Needs adjustments after OKC’s worst offense of the season in Game 6 (just 73.4 points per 100 in half‑court) (cbssports.com).
Predictions & Final Take
- CBS Sports leans Pacers +7 (cover), but slightly favors Thunder SU (cbssports.com).
- New York Post analysis includes heavy historical bias toward home teams in Game 7s (15‑4 in Finals, with road upsets happening) (apnews.com).
- Sharp bettors note OKC’s track record—18‑2 after a loss this season, no back‑to‑backs lost (si.com).
My Take
- Thunder likely to win a tight contest. Home‑court advantage + star power (SGA, Williams) and bench advantage lean OKC’s way.
- Pacers to cover; Indiana’s depth and coaching make them a solid pick against the spread (+7).
- Total feels under-ish—Game 7 nerves + slowed pace hints under ~214. But if players like McConnell go off, a slight over is possible (per CBS’s view) .
Final Summary
- Who wins? Thunder, but expect a close finish (mid-100s score)
- Against the spread? Lean Pacers +7 — Indiana is battle-tested
- Prop to watch: T. J. McConnell over 9.5 points — he’s been a surprise spark (cbssports.com).
Bottom Line
Game 7: thunderous matchup under the bright lights of Oklahoma City. Superstar battle (SGA vs. Haliburton), bench energy (McConnell), and coaching chess moves make this the most buzzed NBA Finals Game 7 since 2016. Catch it 8 PM ET on ABC. Expect drama, defense, clutch plays—and a possible new NBA champion crowned under the big chandelier at Paycom Center.
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