New England Patriots go For 7th Straight vs Buffalo Bills with AFC East Lead at Stake
By Charles Jay
If the New England Patriots want to accomplish the improbable, it would obviously help them a great deal if they could beat the Buffalo Bills, although the Monday night football odds are slightly against them.
However, it seems like the Pats have been beating the odds all season, and they carry a six-game winning streak into Orchard Park for the ESPN televised game that begins at 8:15 p.m. Eastern time.
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Monday Night Football Odds — Here are the numbers…
In the Monday night football odds that have been posted on this game, the Bills are favored by a field goal, and priced at even money:
Buffalo Bills -3 + (+100)
New England Patriots + 3 (-120)
Over 40.5 points -110
Under 40.5 points -110
Monday Night Football Odds — New England offense vs Buffalo defense
New England does not appear to be an explosive team at first glance, but they rank sixth in the league in scoring, tallying 28 points per game. During this winning streak, they have scored 211 points and allowed only 63. Buffalo’s defense is second in the league in scoring, as the Bills have allowed just 16.5 points per game. And they have allowed the fewest yards per game of any NFL team. Opponents have gained only 4.6 yards per play, and 5.3 yards per pass attempt.
We know that part of the New England game plan is going to be running the football, and they have gradually done so more and more as the season has progressed. To illustrate this, Mac Jones, the rookie quarterback out of Alabama who may well win the Rookie of the Year award, threw the ball 160 times in his first four NFL starts. In his last four starts, he threw the ball only ninety-nine times.
The Patriots have a pretty good duo in the backfield, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, and they’ll probably split duties, with a fresh back always carrying the ball. Buffalo, however, has yielded just 3.9 yards per carry, sothis won’t be a cakewalk. And they are third best when it comes to stuffing runs, which means stopping those plays before they cross the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots have gotten consistent play out of Jones, who is completing over 70% of his passes, but on Monday night they encounter a Bills squad that has allowed only 57.6% completions, which is the best in the league.
Monday Night Football Odds — Buffalo offense vs New England defense
Josh Allen may have regressed a little in the minds of many, but he’s still dangerous, because not only can he throw the ball down the field (8.4 yards per target) but he also runs with it as well. And that just adds to a pretty decent ground game which has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt.
Statistically, if there is a chink in the armor for New England, it’s that they have permitted 4.5 yards per rush. But opponents have scored just six touchdowns on the ground against them, and that is the best figure in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs, the Pro Bowl wide receiver, had 237 yards in two meetings against the Patriots last season. BetAnySports patrons know that Bill Belichick is bound and determined, with each defensive game plan, to take away the opposing team’s best weapon. So it will be interesting to see how much headway Diggs makes against JC Jackson, who is developing into one of the best corners in the business.
Monday Night Football Odds — Our conclusion
The Patriots have looked scary good at times during this winning streak, while the Bills have looked scary bad against opponents like Jacksonville and Indianapolis. But don’t expect them to go to sleep on this opponent. It’s no mirage that the Bills have the best net yardage and scoring figures per drive in the league. They bring a pretty good all-around package to the table, and it can be argued that they are better than anyone the Pats have beaten in the last six games.
We can’t disparage New England, because honestly, this reporter had a futures bet on them to win the division. But there are lots of reasons to take a long look at the kind of Buffalo team that will be focused, playing at home, and laying a reasonable number. So we’re with them.
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