By: The Frisco Kid
NFL Week 4 is When Teams Start to Separate Themselves
The NFL Week 4 slate kicked off with a very entertaining game in La La Land. We saw 48 first half points, leading to a 38-31 victory for the LA Rams over the Minnesota Vikings.
This one went well OVER the total of 49. The total went UNDER in the second half with the 2nd half total being set at 26.5. Only 21 points scored. I recently wrote an article about 2nd half total trends. If it stays true, it could be gold Jerry, gold!
Here are a few games to watch coming into Sunday’s action in Week 4.
Dolphins @ Patriots | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Pats -6.5 | Total 48.5
Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that the Dolphins would be the undefeated team coming into this one? Regardless of what we expected, the truth is the Dolphins are 3-0.
They have wins over the Titans, Jets and Raiders. The Fins are also 3-0 ATS.
After starting the season with a win at home against the Texans, the Patriots have now lost back-to-back road games. They lost to Jacksonville and Detroit by double-digits. Not even Tom Terrific can inject life into this anemic offense.
Help is on the way with Justin Edelman returning from suspension in Week 5. Josh Norman getting up to speed on the offense.
New England was a 7.5-point road favorite in Detroit and a 1-point favorite in Jacksonville. That puts their SU and ATS records at 1-2. I just spoke on the Pats offense. They are 25th in total offense, but their troubles don’t end there.
They are 26th in total defense, giving up the 22nd most passing yards per game (263). The squad is an astounding 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (143.3). Miami is 23rd in total offense and 19th in total defense.
Bengals @ Falcons | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Falcons -3.5 | Total 53.5
I predict fireworks in this one. Although only one game has a total higher than this one (KC at DEN 54.5), reaching the OVER is very achievable. The Bengals scored 34 points in their first two games.
They were held to 21 last week against a tough Panthers defense.
Andy Dalton did throw for 352 yards last week, but he only completed 63% of his passes. He also threw FOUR interceptions.
The Falcons forgot to get ready for their season opener in Philly, and looked flat from the get go. They scored only 12 points that night. They have since scored 31 vs. the Panthers in Week 2 and 37 in an overtime thriller with the Saints in Week 3.
This game features a couple of the best wide receivers in the game with Julio Jones and A.J. Green. We also will see a couple of the best up and coming stars at the same position. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd.
The Falcons rookie wide receiver has taken the football world by storm. Ridley broke out last week for 146 yards and 3 TDs after getting the first TD and reception of his career in Week 2.
Third year WR Tyler Boyd has already equaled his 2017 production heading into Week 4. After going for 91 yards and a TD on 9 catches in Week 2, last week he went off for 132 yards and another TD.
With Green good to go, watch for the depleted Falcon defense to have trouble stopping the Bengals duo. Although the same can be said for Atlanta’s Alabama wide outs.
Eagles @ Titans | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Titans +3.5 | Total 41
Expect NFL Week 4 to show some real life drama. It is maybe one of the best reality TV shows there has ever been, and ever will be. It’s a roller coaster ride. Last week, the Titans beat a Jaguars team that had just beaten the Patriots.
The Titans managed only 83 yards through the air and 150 more on the ground, en route to a 9-6 win.
The Eagles got Cap’n Wentz back last week. Although it was not easy, the Eagles went to 2-1 after a 20-16 victory over the Colts. I wrote an article last week, titled “NFL Futures | Super Bowl Winner | Week 3”. I stated:
“Only two short weeks ago the Eagles were a top most power rankings. Getting $1150 on a $100 bet on the Eagles to repeat as Super Bowl champs is perhaps giving the best value of any team on the board.”
While I still believe that statement about value to be true, it is the power rankings part I want to focus on. If you have read my stuff before, you know I handicap my own games prior to looking at any offshore or Vegas odds.
I use a six-category system. I weigh different phases of the game against the other. For purposes of this article, because my opinion means jack-squat, here are the Power Rankings from 3 popular sites for the Titans and Eagles.
Top 3 Google hits for NFL Power Rankings
NFL.com: Eagles #3 Titans #19
ESPN.com: Eagles #3 Titans #20
CBSsports.com: Eagles #3 Titans #5 (up 15 spots from last week)
Those three sets of Power Rankings average out to be Eagles #3 and Titans #14. I do not know the ins and outs of how they come up with these. I would suspect it’s similar to mine and encompass a wide array of information.
The Point being going into NFL Week 4 action is this. Is 3.5-points enough separating that large of a gap in the power rankings? Did the 9-6 victory over the Jags give the Titans that much of a boost?
I don’t think so. There looks to be a lot of money on the Eagles moneyline. expect the spread to get closer to 5 as game-time approaches.
These are three games I will be watching as Sunday in NFL Week 4 action.
Will the Pats get on track or will the Dolphins take a commanding lead in the AFC East? You best get your popcorn ready for Cincy & the Falcons. and Get on the Eagles now before that lines moves out of your favor.
Good luck and see you back here next week.