Can Pirates Stay in the NL Central Race?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the playoffs hunt again. The Chicago Cubs (69-50, +0.99 betting units) are once again on top of the National League Central standings. This year there are three other winning teams in the division.
Their path to the playoffs is anything but secure.
The Cubs will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (61-60, +0.73 units) Thursday night in the opener of an important four-game set at PNC Park.
TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, NBCS Chicago, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42).
ODDS: Cubs are -125-moneyline favorites. The total is 8.5Under -115.
The Pirates are 51-2 when leading after eight innings, while the Cubs are 58-2 when taking a lead to the ninth.
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Jon Lester will start the game for Chicago. Lester did make the All-Star Game this year for the fifth time. His performance level is arguably the worst it’s been since he broke into the majors in 2007. Lester has given up a career-high 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
The Cubs are still 17-7 this year in his 24 starts for 8.29 units in profit. That’s after providing Lester 5.96 runs of support per game. That’s well above Chicago’s season average of 4.92 runs, driving the Over to a 14-9-2 record.
Ivan Nova is due up for the Pirates. Nova has Pittsburgh up 4.69 units this year on a team record of 13-9 (The Over is 12-9-1). The Pirates have won five of Nova’s last six starts. The 31-year-old is 3-0 with a 4.22 ERA over that stretch.
Nova won at San Francisco last time out. He limited the Giants to two runs and three hits over six frames. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in six starts against the Cubs and has allowed four runs in 12 2/3 innings across two meetings in 2018.
PREDICTION: Cubs 6, Pirates 4
Recent Form
| Team | record | money | vs LHP | vs RHP | Fave | Dog | O/U | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chi Cubs | 69-50 | $99.00 | 18-9 | 51-41 | 62-37 | 7-13 | 53-62-4 | 0.76 |
| Pittsburgh | 61-60 | $73.00 | 15-20 | 46-40 | 36-30 | 25-30 | 58-55-8 | 0.0099999999999998 |
J Lester (12-5) ERA: 3.89
| event date | Opponent | Result | score | OU Result | ip | money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2018 | WSH | L | 4-9 | O | 3.2 | -$100.00 |
| Aug 5, 2018 | SD | L | 6-10 | O | 5 | -$100.00 |
| Jul 31, 2018 | PIT | L | 4-5 | O | 5 | -$100.00 |
I Nova (7-6) ERA: 4.41
| event date | Opponent | Result | score | OU Result | ip | money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2018 | SF | W | 10-5 | O | 6 | $136.00 |
| Aug 4, 2018 | STL | L | 4-8 | O | 4 | -$100.00 |
| Jul 27, 2018 | NYM | W | 5-4 | P | 5 | $75.00 |
Bullpen
| Chi Cubs’s relievers have pitched 9 innings in the last 3 games. |
| Pittsburgh’s relievers have pitched 7 innings in the last 3 games. |
Chicago Cubs – J Lester
| Date | score | Winner | ip | hits | Runs | Earned Runs | walks | strikeouts | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2018 | 5-4 | PIT | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Loss |
| Jun 9, 2018 | 2-0 | CHC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | Win |
| May 29, 2018 | 8-6 | CHC | 6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | Win |
| Apr 11, 2018 | 13-5 | CHC | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | No Decision |
| Sep 7, 2017 | 8-2 | CHC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | Win |
Pittsburgh Pirates – I Nova
| Date | score | Winner | ip | hits | Runs | Earned Runs | walks | strikeouts | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2018 | 7-1 | PIT | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | Win |
| Apr 10, 2018 | 8-5 | PIT | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | Win |
| Aug 30, 2017 | 17-3 | CHC | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | Loss |
| Jul 8, 2017 | 4-2 | PIT | 6.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | Win |
| Jun 17, 2017 | 4-3 | PIT | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | Win |
Supergrid
| Title | Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away Team Overall Scoring vs Home Team Overall Defense | 4.91 | 4 | 4.54 | 18 |
| Away Team Away Scoring vs Home Team Home Defense | 4.86 | 6 | 4.29 | 16 |
| Home Team Overall Scoring vs Away Team Overall Defense | 4.55 | 14 | 4.15 | 11 |
| Home Team Home Scoring vs Away Team Road Defense | 4.37 | 17 | 3.66 | 4 |
Head To Head Detail
| Date | Away | away score | Home | home score | line | O/U | Away Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Away Hits | Home Hits | Away Walks | Home Walks | Away Strikeouts | Home Strikeouts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2018 | CHC | 9 | PIT | 2 | 117 | 8 | O | Cole Hamels (L) | Nick Kingham (R) | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
| Jul 31, 2018 | CHC | 4 | PIT | 5 | -116 | 7.5 | O | Jon Lester (L) | Jameson Taillon (R) | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Jun 10, 2018 | PIT | 7 | CHC | 1 | -186 | 9 | U | Ivan Nova (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | 9 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Jun 9, 2018 | PIT | 0 | CHC | 2 | -167 | 8 | U | Nick Kingham (R) | Jon Lester (L) | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| Jun 8, 2018 | PIT | 1 | CHC | 3 | -157 | 8 | U | Chad Kuhl (R) | Mike Montgomery (L) | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| May 30, 2018 | CHC | 1 | PIT | 2 | 124 | 8 | U | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Joe Musgrove (R) | 9 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| May 29, 2018 | CHC | 8 | PIT | 6 | 120 | 8.5 | O | Jon Lester (L) | Nick Kingham (R) | 14 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| May 28, 2018 | CHC | 7 | PIT | 0 | -107 | 9 | U | Mike Montgomery (L) | Chad Kuhl (R) | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Apr 12, 2018 | PIT | 6 | CHC | 1 | -180 | 8.5 | U | Trevor Williams (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 6 |
| Apr 11, 2018 | PIT | 5 | CHC | 13 | -158 | 8.5 | O | Steven Brault (L) | Jon Lester (L) | 8 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
| Chicago Cubs | ||
|---|---|---|
| Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 8 games | ||
| Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road | ||
| Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 8 games on the road | ||
| Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs’s last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh | ||
| Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh | ||
| Chi Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chi Cubs’s last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh | ||
Pittsburgh Pirates |
||
|---|---|---|
| Pitt is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games | ||
| Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home | ||
| Pitt is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home | ||
| Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games at home | ||
| Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs | ||
| Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs | ||
| Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs | ||
| The total has gone OVER in 17 of Pittsburgh’s last 25 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs | ||
Chicago Cubs
| record | Home | Away | Fave | Dog | O/U | vs LHP | vs RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69-50 | 38-23 | 31-27 | 62-36 | 10-14 | 53-62-4 | 18-9 | 51-41 |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-3 | 2-1 | 5-4 | 1-0 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| vs Div | 27-25 | 14-8 | 13-17 | 27-18 | 1-7 | 23-26-3 | 3-0 | 24-25 |
| vs AL | 10-5 | 7-3 | 3-2 | 9-3 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 2-0 | 8-5 |
| vs NL | 59-45 | 31-20 | 28-25 | 53-33 | 9-12 | 46-54-4 | 16-9 | 43-36 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| record | Home | Away | Fave | Dog | O/U | vs LHP | vs RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-60 | 33-29 | 28-31 | 36-26 | 28-33 | 58-55-8 | 15-20 | 46-40 |
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| vs Div | 28-19 | 18-10 | 10-9 | 13-8 | 16-10 | 20-24-3 | 3-7 | 25-12 |
| vs AL | 12-5 | 5-2 | 7-3 | 10-3 | 3-2 | 10-7 | 3-0 | 9-5 |
| vs NL | 49-55 | 28-27 | 21-28 | 26-23 | 25-31 | 48-48-8 | 12-20 | 37-35 |
Chicago Cubs
| Date | Opponent | score | Result | line | Total | starter | ip | opposing starter | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ag 15, 2018 | MIL | 8-4 | W | -144 | 9 | K Hendricks | 6 | Junior Guerra | H |
| Ag 14, 2018 | MIL | 0-7 | L | -140 | 9.5 | J Quintana | 5 | J Chacin | H |
| Aug 12, 2018 | WSH | 4-3 | W | 127 | 7.5 | C Hamels | 7 | M Scherzer | H |
| Ag 11, 2018 | WSH | 4-9 | L | -135 | 9 | J Lester | 3.2 | T Roark | H |
| Aug 10, 2018 | WSH | 3-2 | W | -139 | 8.5 | K Hendricks | 6 | J Hellickson | H |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Date | Opponent | score | Result | line | Total | starter | ip | opposing starter | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2018 | MIN | 4-6 | L | 106 | 8 | C Archer | 5 | Jose Berrios | A |
| Aug 14, 2018 | MIN | 2-5 | L | -125 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 6 | J Odorizzi | A |
| Aug 12, 2018 | SF | 3-4 | L | -106 | 7.5 | Joe Musgrove | 6 | Dereck Rodriguez | A |
| Aug 11, 2018 | SF | 4-0 | W | 119 | 8.5 | Trevor Williams | 7 | Ty Blach | A |
| Aug 10, 2018 | SF | 10-13 | L | 108 | 8 | Clay Holmes | 2.2 | D Holland | A |
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