Reds vs. Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Monday, August 20 at 8:10 PM ET
Odds: Milwaukee -211-moneyline favorites. The total is 9Over -117.
The Brewers look to put a disappointing road trip behind them and get back on track when they open a three-game series against the Reds.
Bailey losses fifth straight decision
Homer Bailey (1-10, 6.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) gave up five earned runs on 10 hits (one home run) last start. He also had two walks with five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a 10-3 loss against the Indians last Monday.
Bailey has lost five straight decisions. That includes his last three starts and he’s 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA and one complete game in seven road starts.
The Reds have scored 564 runs (15th in the majors). They are putting up 4.55 runs per game (14th), hitting .259 (4th) with 128 home runs (22nd). Cincinnati ranks 24th with a 4.67 ERA, 26th with a 1.41 WHIP and 25th with 946 strikeouts.
Their bullpen ranks 16th with a 4.12 ERA. Eugenio Suarez leads the Reds with 27 home runs and 91 RBI. Scooter Gennett has 18 home runs, 72 RBI and team-bests with a .314 batting average and 143 hits.
Anderson lasts just four innings against the Braves
Chase Anderson (7-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) allowed four earned runs on five hits (one home run) and two walks with four strikeouts over four innings. He got a no-decision in an 8-7 loss against the Braves on August 12.
Anderson will pitch with a couple of extra days of rest. That should help him because he’s clearly struggling. He’s failed to get out of the fifth inning in four of his last seven starts.
The Brewers have scored 550 runs (18th in the majors), putting up 4.37 runs per game (19th), hitting .248 (16th) with 158 home runs (9th). Milwaukee ranks 13th with a 3.90 ERA, 12th with a 1.27 WHIP and 11th with 1085 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 10th with a 3.79 ERA.
Jesus Aguilar leads the Brewers with 29 home runs and 89 RBI. Travis Shaw has 24 home runs and 69 RBI. Christian Yelich has 19 home runs, 61 RBI and team-bests with a .310 batting average and 135 hits.
The Cincinnati Reds are:
2-8 in their last 10 road games
2-10 in their last 12 games against a right-handed starter
3-14 in Bailey’s last 17 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game
1-6 in Bailey’s last seven road starts
0-8 in Bailey’s last eight starts during game 1 of a series
0-5 in Bailey’s last five starts with six days of rest
0-4 in Bailey’s last four Monday starts
3-9 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee
2-7 in the last nine meetings
The Milwaukee Brewers are:
8-3 in their last 11 home games against a right-handed starter
12-5 in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record
4-0 in Anderson’s last four starts with seven or more days of rest
4-1 in Anderson’s last five home starts against a team with a losing record
There’s not much value on the Brewers but fading Homer Bailey is the right play. Bailey is 0-5 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his last seven starts, he’s given up 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings over his last two starts and he’s really struggled all season long. This is the perfect spot for Milwaukee’s bats to wake up and get the team back on track.
MLB Pick: Brewers -211
Check odds here: https://goo.gl/dVwAAb
Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk: https://goo.gl/ji6GJZ