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Braves vs. Mets MLB Betting Preview and Pick

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Jacob deGrom in his last start of the season against Braves

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday. Jacob deGrom has one last chance to improve his National League Cy Young resume. He would be a lock for the award if the Mets offense hadn’t betrayed him much of the year.

Wednesday, September 26 at 7:10 PM ET

Citi Field

Mostly Cloudy 73°F

Wind: 5mph


Odds: Mets -163-moneyline favorites. The total is at 7 Under -125.

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Braves Newcomb falls to the Nationals

Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) allowed five earned runs on six hits (two home runs) in his last outing. He also allowed two walks with three strikeouts over just three innings in a 6-4 loss against the Nationals on September 16.

Newcomb is struggling, going 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts. The start will decide whether or not he is in the Braves postseason rotation.

The Braves have scored 747 runs (8th in the majors). They are putting up 4.76 runs per game (7th), hitting .258 (3rd) with 174 home runs (18th).

Atlanta ranks 9th with a 3.77 ERA, 14th with a 1.29 WHIP and 11th with 1365 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 16th with a 4.09 ERA.

Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the Braves with 26 home runs and is fifth on the team with 60 RBI. Freddie Freeman has team-bests with a .310 batting average, 95 RBI, a .388 OBP and 187 hits. He is third on the team with 23 home runs. Ozzie Albies has 24 home runs and 72 RBI.

deGrom dominates Washington

Jacob deGrom (9-9, 1.77 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) gave up one earned run on three hits in his last outing. He also allowed a walk with eight strikeouts over seven innings in a 4-2 win against the Nationals last Friday.

deGrom has built a solid case for the Cy Young award. He is leading the National League with a 1.77 ERA and ranking second with 209 innings pitched. The fireballer has 259 strikeouts and an 0.94 WHIP.

deGrom has a minuscule 1.62 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP with a complete game in his last seven starts.

The Mets have scored 666 runs (21st in the majors). They are putting up 4.24 runs per game (21st), hitting .236 (28th) with 166 home runs (21st).

New York ranks 19th with a 4.18 ERA, 12th with a 1.28 WHIP and 8th with 1398 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 29th with a 5.03 ERA.

Michael Conforto leads the Mets with 27 home runs and 81 RBI. Todd Frazier has 18 home runs and 58 RBI. Brandon Nimmo has 17 home runs, 47 RBI and a team-best .399 OBP.

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MLB Trends:

The Atlanta Braves are:

Braves are 1-5 in Newcomb’s last six starts during game 2 of a series

1-4 in Newcomb’s last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game

Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last five Wednesday starts

1-8 in their last nine games with CB Bucknor behind home plate

The New York Mets are:

16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss

6-1 in their last seven Wednesday games

Mets are 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game

5-2 in their last seven games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

5-2 in their last seven home games

Jacob deGrom has been dominant at home this season. He has posted a 1.66 ERA and an 0.89 WHIP in 15 starts at Citi Field. Although Sean Newcomb pitches better on the road than at home, the Mets have been decent on offense lately. They have a big edge on the mound with deGrom.

MLB Pick: Mets -163 at Jazz Sports

Check odds here: https://goo.gl/dVwAAb

Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk: https://goo.gl/ji6GJZ

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Dirty has been an employee or owner of some of the top online sports gambling forums since 1998. He worked at EOG.com from it's inception until 2008 when he left and opened GamblingIQ and then in 2012 opened Handicappers Hidaway. He has written hundreds af articles over the years and always has his "Dirty Dozen" College Football poll up starting the first week of October.
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