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Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pointspread Predictions for Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars

Can The Atlanta Falcons Get Right Against the Jacksonville Jaguars?

By Charles Jay

The Atlanta Falcons have been embarrassed over their last couple of games, as they have been outscored 68-3.  That’s not a typographical error; Atlanta, which was supposed to be fresher on offense this season with first-year head coach Arthur Smith, can’t seem to get on the scoreboard. Of course, when BetAnySports customers make their NFL pointspread predictions, they realize that this is largely because of the absence of playmakers.

Calvin Ridley, who was to take over the top receiver job this season after Julio Jones was traded, has bowed out of football for the time being with mental health issues. And Cordarrelle Patterson, who not only leads this team in rushing yards but also touchdown catches, injured his ankle and has been unavailable. He is a game-time decision here, and that decision will be a big one, considering that the Falcons have gone scoreless in seven quarters without him.

On Sunday the Falcons are in Jacksonville for a date with the Jaguars, who are coming off an extremely disappointing effort in a 30-10 defeat to the San Francisco 49ers. Game time is 1 p.m. Eastern at TIAA Bank field.

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NFL Pointspread Predictions — Matt Ryan’s problem

It’s not that Jacksonville doesn’t have its own injury problems; indeed, receivers DJ Chark and Jamal Agnew will not be available. And of course, they have the developing rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who is kind of in the “red” as far as his production is concerned, with eight touchdown passes and nine interceptions.

What Matt Ryan, the former League MVP, is finding out is that with a suspect offensive line, like he has, he’s got to get rid of the ball rather quickly. As a result, he is down near the bottom of the list as far as  average yards per target is concerned.

Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts was expected to be a revelation, and indeed everyone that sees him is impressed with him. When you are missing receivers like Atlanta is, and you can’t run the ball, offenses are going to pay extra attention to him. Pitts has 635 receiving yards, but only one touchdown.

NFL Pointspread Predictions — Here are the numbers…..

In the NFL betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Falcons are the very slight favorite on the road.

Atlanta Falcons – 1  (-120)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 1  (+100)

Over 46 points -110
Under 46 points – 110

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NFL Pointspread Predictions — Are there redeeming qualities about the Jags?

For all their faults and all the drama we have seen out of Jacksonville, with the erratic behavior and controversy surrounding head coach Urban Meyer, this team has actually put together a few positive metrics on the defensive side of the football. For example, they are second in the NFL in pressure rate on the pass rush, and that should be something of great concern to Ryan. They have also been in the upper half of the league rankings when it comes to defending against third-down conversions and red-zone touchdown conversions. And they also have surrendered about four yards per carry, which is credible.

They can also run the football, and this shouldn’t be overlooked. With James Robinson, who will be available for this game, they have averaged just under five yards per carry as a team. That puts them in stark contrast to the Falcons, who have a pitiful grade of 30th in the league, according to the folks at Pro Football Focus.

Of course, with Lawrence you are probably going to get some mistakes. And the Jags have been one of the NFL’s worst in terms of dropped passes. We expect the rookie to seek out Dan Arnold a lot more. Arnold, a tight end, has caught 27 passes on the season, although he has not yet reached the end zone. That might change on Sunday.

NFL Pointspread Predictions — Our conclusion

While the Falcons most likely won’t move the ball much on the ground, Jacksonville probably will. That’s a critical difference between these two teams, especially when you’ve got a home underdog. Of course, you have to keep an eye on the Patterson injury, because that might change the outlook for Atlanta by giving them a dynamic playmaker. But if he’s not playing, we do like the Jaguars.

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Dirty has been an employee or owner of some of the top online sports gambling forums since 1998. He worked at EOG.com from it's inception until 2008 when he left and opened GamblingIQ and then in 2012 opened Handicappers Hidaway. He has written hundreds af articles over the years and always has his "Dirty Dozen" College Football poll up starting the first week of October.
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