Rule Changes Could affect 2024 MLB Home Run Derby
The Midsummer Classic is upon us, and with it comes the crown jewel of the All-Star festivities – the Home Run Derby! This year’s edition takes place under the retractable roof of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, a hitter-friendly environment that could see some serious fireworks.
Let’s delve into the top contenders, explore some intriguing player matchups, analyze exciting prop bets, and identify the best bets to consider for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby. Complete odds and prop bets from MyBookie will be at the bottom of the page. Check them out.
These picks are figuring in the 2024 Rule changes where each hitter now has a time limit and/or a certain number pitches. First round is 40 pitches or 3-Minutes. They also have a time-out. Then after 3 minutes the hitters keep swinging until they get three more outs. The rest of the rounds are similar and CBS Sports does a great job of explaining it here.
The Heavy Hitters: Analyzing the Powerhouses
- Pete Alonso (Mets): (+295) – The reigning two-time champion returns for a shot at history. Alonso is a monster at the plate, possessing raw power and a knack for clutch hitting in the Derby format. Globe Life Field shouldn’t faze him, and his experience is a valuable asset. Look for him to rely on his familiar pitcher, Dave Jauss, to find a rhythm early.
- Marcell Ozuna (Braves): (+390) – Ozuna boasts the highest barrel rate (percentage of batted balls hit at a launch angle and exit velocity for maximum distance) among the participants. He’s been hot lately with three home runs in the last week, making him a dangerous threat. However, fatigue could be a factor at his age (33). An interesting matchup to watch will be if he faces a pitcher who throws breaking balls effectively – can he adjust his approach to counter those pitches and stay on fastballs?
- Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): (+400) – The young phenom leads the Derby field in home runs this season (28). His raw power is undeniable, but his swing might not be as “all-or-nothing” as some Derby winners. Can he adjust his approach for the short, intense format? An intriguing question is whether he can handle the pressure of the big stage – rookies haven’t historically fared well in the Derby.
Beyond the Big Bats: Unveiling Dark Horses and Matchup Magic
- Adolis Garcia (Rangers): (+520) – The hometown hero has a chance to feed off the Texas crowd. He’s been launching missiles all season, and the short distance to the outfield walls at Globe Life Field could be his friend. Keep an eye on his performance against left-handed pitchers – he crushes them this season.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): (+420) – While some experts are fading him due to his lower home run total (16), Witt Jr. possesses a well-rounded skill-set with a surprising amount of power for a young shortstop. Don’t discount his ability to get hot and surprise some people. Look for him to focus on hitting line drives with good launch angles – a strategy that can be effective in the Derby.
Home Run Derby Prop Bets to Spice Up Your Viewing
Beyond the winner, there are a variety of prop bets to add some intrigue to the Derby:
- Total Home Runs Over/Under: With the hitter-friendly park and the juiced balls used, the “over” for total home runs seems like a safe bet. Look for a number around 269.5.
- First Out: This can be a volatile bet, but a hitter known for struggling to hit the long ball against a pitcher throwing breaking balls could be an interesting pick.
- Distance of Longest Home Run: This is always a fun one. Globe Life Field’s short fences could see some bombs, so consider the “over” for the distance of the longest home run (potentially exceeding 484.5 feet).
Crafting Your Winning Strategy:
Here are some final recommendations to consider when placing your bets:
- Safe Bet: Over 269.5 Total Home Runs – The hitter-friendly park and format should produce a ton of dingers.
- Value Pick: Marcell Ozuna to Win (+390) – He’s got the power and is in good form. The matchup against his first-round pitcher will be crucial.
- Longshot: Adolis Garcia to Win (+520) – The hometown hero could surprise with the Texas crowd behind him. Watch his performance against lefties.
- Prop Bet Strategy: Combine the “over” on total home runs with a player prop like “Ozuna First Round Leader” (+400) to create a potentially lucrative payout.
Remember: Betting on the Home Run Derby is all about entertainment. Choose bets that excite you and add to the enjoyment of watching some of baseball’s biggest sluggers take center stage.
Enjoy the Derby, and may the best (and most entertaining) hitter win!
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Odds to Win the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby
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