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NFL Betting Preview -- Hopefully no turkeys in our Thanksgiving Day picks

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Thanksgiving Day Nfl

The NFL Betting Should be Wild on Thanksgiving Day as Three Games Await

By Charles Jay

NFL Week 12 is here with their full slate of Thanksgiving Day Games that NFL Betting gurus have been waiting for. Well, as talk turkey on Thanksgiving, that is exactly what the Minnesota Vikings were last Sunday, as they were laid out and carved up by the Dallas Cowboys. So the questions BetAnySports customers may want to ask themselves - were the Vikings a phony Super Bowl contender? Are the Cowboys just that good? And have the Detroit Lions actually turned the corner?

Every time we think we know the answers, things seem to change. We'll see about that, as we delve into the holiday action, which presents bigger challenges for some than others, as you'll see.

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, 12:30 PM ET

NFL Thanksgiving Day Odds:  Bills -9.5
Total: 54.5 Points

We can't really start singing the praises of Detroit's defense. They are ranked 32nd (that's last) in the league in yards allowed, and have surrendered 50% on third down. That hasn't changed with this three-game winning streak. But, it IS a three-game winning streak, and Dan Campbell is the kind of rah-rah guy who can these guys believing in themselves. And hey, you remember that the Lions were actually given a chance at the playoffs in many preseason forecasts. So they are not without talent.

They have played good teams tough. They have lost by three points to Philadelphia and Seattle, and four points to Miami and Minnesota. Those are four teams who either lead a division or have some share of it. That's reflected in a solid 6-3-1 ATS mark. And Buffalo has not looked like a juggernaut these last few weeks.

One area you might be able to attack the Bills is on the ground, and Detroit might just be able to do it with the likes of Jamaal Williams, Justin Jackson and D'Andre Swift (who has to wake up a little). From there, Jared Goff might be able to do some play action.

Lastly, you know that the Bills played on Sunday in Detroit because of the blizzard back home. Instead of staying in the Motor City, they went back to Buffalo with plans to return. That's a travel problem in and of itself. And that's a travel problem they didn't need.

The Play: LIONS +9.5

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET

NFL Betting Odds from BetAnySports: Cowboys -10
Total: 45.5 Points

Dallas is coming off its best effort in a while, steamrolling Minnesota 40-3. Meanwhile, first-year head coach Brian Daboll said that "nothing was up to standard' in the Giants' loss to Detroit. Daniel Jones had gone 153 attempts without an interception before last weekend's two picks. And when you have that, combined with 22 yards on 15 carries from Saquon Barkley, who went into that game as the NFL's leading rusher, you have a formula for defeat.

Daboll is catching a lot of flak for putting his best corner, Adoree Jackson, on punt return detail, and on one of those plays he tore his MCL. There are injury problems along the offensive line. Evan Neal is out. Center Jon Feliciano is out. Some reserves are out. It's a mess. Rookie Wan'Dale Robinson, who had become a key receiver, is lost to an ACL.

In the previous meeting, Dallas won 23-16 at MetLife Stadium behind five sacks of Jones. Will this get better? Point differentials tell an interesting story. The Cowboys are at +1; the Cowboys are +84. We swallow hard here, because Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last eleven hosting Thanksgiving games.

The Play: COWBOYS -10

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 PM ET

NFL Odds: Vikings -2.5
Total: 42.5 Points

Okay, we obviously must mention that the Vikings were obliterated last week. Dallas came into their backyard and held them to three points and 183 yards. And they sacked Kirk Cousins seven times. And as we were speaking about point differentials, Minnesota, despite its 8-2 record, has been outscored by two points for the season.

Of course, this is the NFL, and teams often bounce back after embarrassments. The Vikes have a high-percentage passer in Cousins, a top rusher in Dalvin Cook, and the estimable Justin Jefferson on the outside. And the Patriots moved the ball a lot but did not cross the goal line against the Jets until Marcus Jones took a punt back 84 yards with five seconds remaining.

We may have to take the vast experience gap between Bill Belichick and first-year Viking coach Kevin O'Connell into account. Another factor you can't ignore is that Cousins' win-loss record is 10-18 in night games, although when you get him away from Monday nights, it's a less horrific 8-8. No, the Vikings weren't as good as their 8-2 record coming into the Dallas game. But the humiliation should be enough to get a huge effort out of them. And they are at least good enough to beat a punchless offense.

The Play: VIKINGS -2.5

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Posted : 24/11/2022 2:40 am

 
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