Tampa Bay Under the Gun in the NHL Stanley Cup
By Charles Jay
What else can be said about Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, except that it was a beatdown of epic proportions? The Tampa Bay Lightning should have been coming into the contest with at least a little confidence, inasmuch as they were able to come back from two goals down and force overtime in Game 1 in Denver.
What they looked like was a team that had been somewhat discouraged, and for a two-time defending Cup champion, for them to come out very soft was, in a word, shocking.
Off that Game 2 result, the Colorado Avalanche are not unrealistic if they are thinking about a sweep, and so BetAnySports patrons need to take that possibility into account.
After their disaster in the Rocky Mountains, the Lightning gets to come back home, and Game 3 will take place on Monday night at the Amalie Arena (8 PM ET opening face-off).
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NHL Stanley Cup Odds — Yeah, it was embarrassing
When you win by a “touchdown” (7-0), it represents not only that there was a total domination by one of the two teams, but also that there was no “letup” in the process of that victory. Even after they had their win salted away in the waning moments, you could see the Avs playing harder.
Was the Bolts’ collective heart taken away? And will they get that heart back as they get back in front of a friendly crowd?
Or, is the gap between these squads so wide that it won’t really matter?
That’s actually a fascinating subject to explore, because logic would seem to dictate that a team that has won two consecutive Stanley Cups will not go away quietly. And keep in mind that the Lightning, even after that awful effort, are still 19-2 following a postseason loss, going back to their playoff run two seasons ago.
NHL Stanley Cup Odds — Here are the numbers…
…from our friends at BetAnySports:
Tampa Bay Lightning -115
Colorado Avalanche -105
Under 6 Goals -125
Over 6 Goals +105
And on the puck line….
Lightning -1.5 Goals +225
Avalanche +1.5 Goals -260
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NHL Stanley Cup Odds — Avs in control… completely
As we alluded to before, if you were looking for an indication of utter dominance, you came to the right place.
In Game 2, the Avs had the 30-16 advantage in shots on goal, which means that they are ahead 68-39 in that department.
And if you are into analytics, there is a great illustration as far as the Corsi figure is concerned. This is an indicator of how much control a team has over the puck. The objective, theoretically, is to be over 50%. Sometimes that’s a bit deceptive, but when one team has a 67.4% Corsi figure, as was the case with Colorado, there is not a lot of room for misinterpretation.
NHL Stanley Cup Odds — is it Vasilevskiy’s fault?
As he came into this series, Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is considered to be among the absolute elite goaltenders in the NHL, had compiled a 2.24 GAA and .925 save percentage in 93 playoff starts. But in two games here, he has been riddled.
Vasilevskiy has been tagged for two goals in the first ten minutes in each game. His save percentage is .838 thus far.
When your opponents has a 21-6 in scoring chances, there is something your defense is not doing right. Colorado is beating Tampa Bay down the ice, and getting odd-man rushes. The Lightning have left people open too close to the net, and in addition to the fact that they had two power play goals (and one that came short-handed), the Avs at times looked like they were on a power play, even in 5v5 situations.
NHL Stanley Cup Odds — Conclusion
Forget about the stat sheet for the moment. When you apply the “eye test,” you have to have come away from Game 2 – in fact, the first two games – with the impression that one of these teams is superior.
And as you have watched the action, where the Avalanche have looked like an NBA team doing a “run and gun” and beating the opponent down the floor all the time, you may come to the conclusion that at this point, the only thing Tampa Bay has on its side is the fact that it is playing at home.
And admittedly, they are 7-1 at Amalie Arena in the playoffs. But the Avs have won all seven road games in the postseason, outscoring the opposition by a 38-20 margin.
And you can get them as an underdog here. So that is worth investigating.
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